I.I. LUTPHARAKHMANOV, P.I. MIRONOV

Bashkir State Medical University, 3 Lenina Str., Ufa, Russian Federation, 450000

Lutpharakhmanov I.I. ― D. Med. Sc., Professor, Head of the Department of anesthesiology and emergency medicine with a course of the Institute of additional postgraduate education, tel. +7-917-409-17-45, e-mail: orit@mail333.com

Mironov P.I. ― D. Med. Sc., Professor of the Department of pediatric surgery with a course of the Institute of additional postgraduate education, tel. +7-917-773-58-11, e-mail: mironovpi@mail.ru

To estimate possibility of artificial neural circuitries (ANC) to predict the development of abdominal sepsis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis 100 patients with severe acute pancreatitis were examined according to the Atlanta classification criteria. Network programs NN PRO (v1,0; Pro-356, Russia) and neural networks (v 1,7; NNet, Russia) were applied. Discriminatory ability of the ANC is compared with the possibilities of SOFA, RISSC and APACHE II scales. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict the incidence of abdominal sepsis accounted for the neural network model ― 79±0,04; p=1,000, SOFA scale ― 0,76±0,05; p=0,032, APACHE II scale ― 0,67±0,05; p=0,036, RISSC scale ― 0,60±0,06; p=0,001). Artificial neural network model enabled with high efficiency to predict the development of an abdominal sepsis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

Key words: severe acute pancreatitis, sepsis, artificial neural circuitries, prediction.

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