O.N. LEVANOVA^1,2, V.G. LIKHVANTSEVA^3,4, V.A. SOKOLOV¹, T.E. BORISENKO⁵

¹I.P. Pavlov Ryazan State Medical University, 9 Vysokovoltnaya Str., Ryazan, Russian Federation, 390026

²Ryazan Region Hospital named after N.A. Semashko, 3 Semashko Str., Ryazan, Russian Federation, 390005

³Institute for Advanced Training of Federal Medical-Biological Agency, 91 Volokolamskoye shosse, Moscow, Russian Federation, 125310

⁴Institute of Biochemical Physics named after N.E. Emanuel of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 4 Kosygin Str., Moscow, Russian Federation, 119334

⁵Research Institute of Eye Diseases, 11A Rossolimo Str., Moscow, Russian Federation, 119021

 Levanova O.N. ― ophthalmologist, е-mail: Levanova.olga2013@yandex.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9181-1340

Likhvantseva V.G. ― D. Sc. (medicine), Professor of the Ophthalmology Department, e-mail: likhvantseva-4@yandex.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2708-7217

Sokolov V.A. ― D. Sc. (medicine), Professor of the Department of Ocular and ENT Diseases, e-mail: sva_sva@mail.ru

Borisenko T.E. ― consultant-statistician, е-mail: borite@mail.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5016-5677

 Background. One of the main directions in solving the problem of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the early prediction of the disease in order to prevent blindness and stabilize the pathological process.

Objective ― to develop models for predicting the risk of POAG development and progression based on individual combination of risk factors by multivariate regression analysis.

Material and methods. We examined 66 patients (132 eyes) (23 women and 43 men) with newly diagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma. The control group consisted of 14 patients (8 men and 6 women). Ophthalmic examination was supplemented with biochemical study of the lacrimal fluid. Concentration of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in lacrimal fluid in both eyes was determined with “sandwich” method of solid-phase immunoferment analysis.

Results. Based on all risk factors closely connected (р≤0.05) with POAG development and progression, models for calculating the risk of POAG development and progression were developed.

Key words: primary open-angle glaucoma, regression models, matrix metalloproteinases.

(For citation: Levanova O.N., Likhvantseva V.G., Borisenko T.E., Sokolov V.A. Capabilities of modern statistical methods of regression analysis in the prediction of primary open angle glaucoma. Practical Medicine. 2018)

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